A recent report on the impact of immigration from Bulgaria and Romania (known as the UE2 countries) following the lifting of transitional controls at the end of the year predicts that it may increase pressures on the education system, but have relatively little impact on the health service due to the demographic profile of typical migrants from Eastern Europe.
The impact on housing is uncertain. The report, commissioned by the Government from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), suggests that future migration to the UK, including from Bulgaria and Romania, is likely to place added pressure on the lower end of the private rented sector. However, the impacts of such migration is likely to be more problematic in areas of tight existing housing supply, whereas in low demand areas it may help to stabilise the local market.
The authors suggest that future EU2 migration may in time place added pressure on the social housing market, and homelessness may become a problem, particularly as access to benefits will initially be restricted. Prime Minister David Cameron recently promised changes to allocations guidance to ensure that that migrants will need to have lived here and contributed to this country for at least two years before they can qualify for social housing.
The study was criticised for its failure to include numerical estimates of the scale of migration from Bulgaria and Romania to the UK once interim restrictions are lifted. The authors claim that it’s not possible to predict the scale of migration with any degree of certainty due to the lack of accurate data on current migration and the inherent unpredictability of migration.
The Migration Watch UK think tank has estimated that 50,000 Romanians and Bulgarians will come to the UK each year for the next five years. Sir Andrew Green, chairman of Migration Watch UK, was quoted by the BBC as saying “This report is a bucket of whitewash.
The report suggests that local authorities may be better equipped to meet the needs of the new EU migrants than they were last time the EU was enlarged. However, expenditure cuts may now be placing particular pressure on services.
The research included a review of data and of research literature from the UK, Romania and Bulgaria. It points out that migrants are overwhelmingly young, aged under 35 and that the preferred destination for migrants from the EU2 countries up until now has been Spain and Italy.
Thanks to Housemark for this insight